Core Concepts

Market Definitions

Understanding what a prediction market is and how to define one for automated resolution.

What is a Prediction Market?

A prediction market is a speculative market where participants trade on the outcome of future events. Markets are defined by a question (the prompt), expected answer type, and data sources that will be used to determine the outcome.

Prophecy is a protocol for prediction markets that uses LLM agents to resolve market outcomes. The agent loads the specified source URLs, extracts information based on the prompt, and compares the result against the expected value using the specified comparison operator.

Caliber is the rating system that evaluates market definitions before they are created, helping ensure markets are well-defined and can be reliably resolved by the Prophecy protocol.

Definition Schema

A market definition consists of the following fields:

prompt

stringrequired

The question that defines what information to extract from sources. Should be phrased as a clear extraction instruction.

answer_type

string | numberrequired

The type of answer expected: 'string' for text values, 'number' for numeric values.

expected_results

string[] | number[]required

The values the market should resolve to. All values must be the same type, matching answer_type.

comparison_operator

== | != | > | < | >= | <=optional

How to compare the extracted result with expected_results.

source_urls

string[]required

URLs the resolution agent will fetch to extract information.

min_agreement

integerrequired

Minimum number of sources that must agree on the result for resolution.

resolution_start

ISO datetimerequired

When the resolution period begins.

resolution_end

ISO datetimerequired

When the resolution period ends.